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An in-depth analysis of Rogue One's box office potential (and why I think it's being massively overpredicted) [Part 1: TFA, competition, social media and presales]

2016.12.07 18:03 jc191 An in-depth analysis of Rogue One's box office potential (and why I think it's being massively overpredicted) [Part 1: TFA, competition, social media and presales]

So with Rogue One having opened up for presales across the US over a week ago now, and with only a little over a week to go until its release, I thought I'd do a little analysis on how much box office potential the film really has.
Like with TFA after opening weekend numbers came in, I think people have been vastly overestimating* the film. And with presales available and reports of online ticket sites crashing from demand, people's expectations have been going even further through the roof. I'd like to present the argument for the dissenting viewpoint - that Rogue One will do well as a spinoff, landing in the top 5 highest-grossing movies of the year, but won't be the TFA-lite runaway success that people generally seem to think it will be. I see a small minority of skeptical people that are trying to downplay the film's expectations and are generally predicting in the $900m-$1b range, and I'm going to discuss why I'm firmly in that camp and why I think Rogue One's going to fall in that ballpark.
So before we get to the bottom of why I think Rogue One isn't going to be as successful as most people think it will be, we first need to discuss why TFA was as successful as it was in the first place. Of course, when you release a mainline Star Wars movie there's always going to be a certain level of commercial success, especially when it's the first in 10 years. What I'm really looking for, though, are the reasons why TFA became a $2b hit, as opposed to, say, an Avengers or DH2-tier hit. I've come up with five main points, and I've structured them in a list such that each reason is a direct implication of the ones that precede it. So here we are:
  1. (a) It wasn't the prequels, and further than that it was a direct continuation of the OT with returning main cast members. This one is pretty self-explanatory. After the prequels left a bad taste in everyone's mouths, over the years that followed people starting yearning more and more for a Star Wars trilogy that could hold up to the beloved originals. And when Disney acquired Lucasfilm and announced a new trilogy back in 2012, that dream became a potential reality. Once the original cast were on board - well, not only did the news spread itself, but it sent a pretty clear message that these films were going to go in the completely opposite direction of the prequels (if the acquisition itself didn't already imply that). In casting the original trio, Disney implied that they knew how much-loved the original trilogy was, and that they were going to try and recapture some of that magic - "we know what you want, and we're going to give it to you". Once you've got that message out there that's pretty much all you need to do - you've already got a huge hit on your hands. I don't need to explain why a sequel to the OT was a hit because it's obvious. We all know that nostalgia sells - and TFA was the ultimate nostalgia bait.

  1. (b) It was the first "good" Star Wars movie in over 3 decades. So yes, the reception to the prequels definitely helped the film to sell. The marketing for TFA was so effective in distinguishing it from the prequels that it almost became a presupposition that the film was going to be great before it was released. How could it not be? All the ingredients were there - the OT main cast, the return of the Millennium Falcon; heck, they even touted the fact that they were returning to puppets and practical effects rather than over-relying on CGI, as if they needed any more ways to remind people that they were distancing themselves from the prequels. And that trailer, jesus christ. I disliked TFA as a film personally, and yet I'll readily admit that its trailer (the last one) was one of the greatest of all time, at least in effectiveness of intent (in fact, the entire marketing campaign for the film was near-perfect). And on top of all this, there was no way in hell Disney were going to let the film crash the momentum of their $4b acquisition before it had even gotten off the ground. Like with The Phantom Menace, people went into the cinema wanting badly to like TFA, and so they did.
  2. It received near-universal acclaim (both public and critical). In many ways, it didn't really matter how good TFA was as a film - the weight of the pathos behind the film ensured that as long as it was "good enough", it would have been well-received. Further to that, such was the effectiveness of Disney's marketing of TFA, both as the antithesis of the prequels and as a true sequel to the OT, that the film became almost critically unassailable; it was almost as though you were in effect criticizing the OT if you criticized TFA. But whether its glowing reception was in part a product of the marketing or not is almost irrelevant. Audience expectations were both met and exceeded - it was the film everyone wanted it to be.
  3. It had both near-universal appeal and incredible word-of-mouth. As far as I'm concerned only James Cameron, with Titanic and Avatar, has ever come close to a true "4-quadrant", transcendent global hit, but TFA perhaps came closest to those two in its ubiquitous, universal appeal. So not only is it no surprise that this highly-anticipated, acclaimed Star Wars film that reunited the old cast after over 30 years had the core fanbase raving, it's also no surprise that that excitement carried as far as it did outside the core audience. The male, 18-49 year-old core fanbase went crazy simply over a new Star Wars film after the disappointments of the prequels; the older, age 50+ audience were crazily excited to see the OT main cast, a significant part of their early life, return to the screen after 3 decades; parents brought their children along to share with them the same awe-inducing experience that they'd had watching the OT in their childhood (there was a definite feeling of passing on the phenomenon to a new generation with TFA); even women, who typically aren't as enthusiastic about the Star Wars brand, were handed an olive branch in the way of Rey, to encourage them to at least give Episode VII a chance** (and even if that didn't work, their partners were dragging them along anyway). There was a huge pool of potential viewers that TFA could reach, and thanks to the word-of-mouth and the marketing, it did.
  4. It received extremely high repeat viewings. Star Wars as a franchise has a very dedicated fanbase, so this was a given regardless of the film's reception (see: The Phantom Menace, which, outside of Avatar, has the highest opening weekend multiplier for films with opening weekends in the top 200 of all time). But due to such strong word-of-mouth, not only did the Star Wars fanbase as a whole get fully on board with watching the film multiple times each, the general public did too. People found themselves encouraging others to go watch the film after they'd seen it themselves (which inevitably led to people going multiple times with different friends groups, family etc.) - everyone just generally wanted to share their own experience with others. And that's how you get a movie to $2b.
There were also a number of other smaller, periphery reasons for TFA's huge success that are worth noting. The lack of competition during its release. The deal that kept it in theatres for 4 weeks without losing a single screen. The expensive marathon tickets. The IMAX stranglehold. The film would no doubt have had massive success without these things, but it's the combination of all these little factors that brought TFA to the $2b heights that it reached.
So now after having a look at the main reasons for TFA's successes, it seems pretty evident that pretty much none of these will apply also to Rogue One. Each of the above reasons for TFA's abnormal success stems from the first two: 1) (a) It was a direct continuation of the OT and featured the old cast, which also distanced it from the prequels, and 1) (b) It was the first "good" Star Wars movie in over 30 years. The former is the reason why TFA opened to such huge numbers (along with the fact that it was the first movie in the franchise for a decade), while the latter is the root cause of why it managed to sustain such a high opening weekend multiplier*** (with the lack of competition also helping).
Rogue One, on the other hand, doesn't have these factors in play. It's not a main-series Star Wars film, it doesn't have the hype and audience hunger of being the first Star Wars film in a decade and the first well-received one in over three, and it doesn't have the emotional appeal of the original cast which gave TFA such wide-reaching appeal. By consequence of these facts, Rogue One won't have such a large pool of potentially interested viewers, and thus the effects of word-of-mouth won't be anywhere near as powerful as with TFA (which in turn means nowhere near the repeat viewership, even proportionally to the film's potential gross). It's not all downhill, though. TFA strengthened the Star Wars brand and, being the first Star Wars movie released after TFA, the film will see benefits from that in terms of casual audience retention. Rogue One also retains ties with the OT, with its familiar story backdrop and even appearances from some old faces (most notably Darth Vader), which is sure to at least tempt a little of the casual audience back from TFA. [On that topic, I think Vader has been ridiculously overstated as a draw for Rogue One - I really don't think his inclusion will have much effect on the film's gross. If you want to hear my thoughts on the topic and my reasons for saying that, I've imgur'd the text here, because I cannot fit a single character more into this post.]
It's also worth pointing out that even a lot of the smaller reasons for TFA's success don't ring true for Rogue One. The film has three major potential competitors releasing only a few days after its debut, compared to TFA which had almost no relevant competition during its entire run. Further, it won't have the marathon tickets to bolster its opening weekend, nor will it dominate IMAX for as long as TFA.
It's for all the above reasons that it's almost impossible to compare the TFA-Rogue One situation to any other pair of films. Sequel comparisons don't work because well, first of all it's not a sequel, and secondly because all of the factors above mean it wouldn't behave like a normal sequel even if it was. The comparisons to The Avengers and Iron Man 3 don't work for the same reasons. There are very few aspects in which Rogue One will play similarly to TFA (and the opening weekend multiplier is not one of them), so comparing them to each other as individual films is an even worse idea.
As a final note: speaking in terms of TFA's audience, I'd estimate that Rogue One will capture the vast majority (90%+) of the hardcore fanbase, most (60-70%) of the casual fanbase, and around 30-40% of the general public that went to see TFA. It's also highly likely that Rogue One's audience skews significantly higher in age than TFA's, not only because of the film's content, but also due to the competition it has from Sing (which I'll talk about in more detail later).
So now that that's all out of the way, we can do some concrete analysis on the box office potential of Rogue One. In this thread, I'll be taking a look at Rogue One's competition in more detail, after which follows some analysis of social media, trailer views and presales.
* In the last Rogue One prediction thread we had on boxoffice, the average prediction for worldwide total gross was around $1.15b, with a couple of people even going as high as $1.4b and $1.5b. The thread before that, the average was around $1.4b, with figures as high as $1.7b being thrown around by multiple people.
** For a franchise that historically has been very male-oriented, TFA was astonishingly well-balanced gender-wise, which speaks to its wide-reaching appeal. According to Variety, men made up 58% of ticket buyers during its opening weekend, while women made up 42%. It's not an even split, and it never will be, but for a franchise like Star Wars that's about the best that you can hope for.
*** Along with The Dark Knight, TFA has by far the best multiplier for a movie opening above $150m.

Rogue One's competition

I've already mentioned that Rogue One will have way more competition than TFA, so let's first look back at what TFA's release landscape was like, so we can compare.
TFA opened in December 2015 alongside Alvin and the Chipmunks (an animated kids movie) and Sisters (a comedy, marketed primarily to women), both of which had little overlap with its audience ("counter-programming") and provided little, if anything, in the way of competition. The same can be said of Daddy's Home, another comedy, and Joy, a comedy-drama led by Jennifer Lawrence, both of which released during TFA's second weekend. The only real competition the film had during its release was The Revenant, which only saw a wide release during TFA's 4th weekend (at which point it had already made $770m, or 82% of its total gross).
Now let's look at the films releasing around Rogue One. On December 21 (only 5 days after Rogue One's release) we've got 3 films premiering, each of which has the potential to damage the film's box office returns: we've got Sing, an animated music comedy produced by Illumination (The Secret Life of Pets, Minions); we've got Assassin's Creed, a movie starring Michael Fassbender that's based on the video game franchise of the same name; and we have Passengers, a sci-fi thriller starring Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence. It might not be obvious to all why some of these would pose a threat to Rogue One, so I'll try and explain my thought process.
First of all, Sing. It's not predicted to be a TSLOP-tier hit domestically - indeed, it's only been predicted to make around $115m total by Boxoffice.com - but I don't think that's where its real threat lies. The main threat that Sing poses is in international markets, markets where animated movies typically perform extremely well: think Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Italy, the Netherlands, Ukraine, possibly even China (note that Sing will likely be vying for a January release date in China like Rogue One). In terms of admissions, Minions was more successful than TFA in every single one of these territories bar China, while Pets did at least 50% of TFA's business in each territory and even outdid it in Mexico and Argentina (see here for the data on both total dollar gross and admissions for each movie).
Not only will Sing be huge competition for Rogue One in these select international markets where animated movies reign king, but it might actually prove to be modest competition both domestically and in other major overseas markets - Australia, Germany, Spain - where Pets performed pretty solidly. It seems to be a pretty realistic possibility that Sing eats into both Rogue One's younger market and the family audience (remember that for TFA's opening weekend, adults represented only 71% of the crowd, and families accounted for 20% of the audience).
Thankfully for Rogue One, the film doesn't release in Japan or Russia until March 2017, and in the UK and France until mid-late January. In particular, in Russia, Pets is now the second biggest film of all time* in terms of admissions with 9.5m tickets sold (behind only Avatar's 14.2m), and Minions is sixth with 8.4m (compare with TFA's 5.8m), so Sing would have been huge competition for Rogue One there.
To round this off, I'll end by saying Sing is by far the movie out of the three with the most trailer interest, with about 8m views on its initial teaser, 69m views on its first trailer, and 18.2m views on its second trailer as of 11/29. Boxoffice.com has the film at a $24m 3-day opening with an $115m total gross; The Wrap has its 3-day opening at $37m ($55m 5-day); The Numbers has its domestic total as $150m.
* Animated movies are hilariously popular in Russia, with only two movies in the top 10 all time (in terms of admissions) being non-animated: Avatar at #1, and local romantic comedy "The Irony of Fate 2" at #4. Pets, Zootopia, Ice Age 3, Minions, Shrek 4, Madagascar 2, Ice Age 4 and Madagascar 3 round off the rest of the top 10.
Assassin's Creed
Next, Assassin's Creed. Probably the movie out of the three that's least likely to pose a threat to Rogue One. They both share a very similar audience, which is obviously far more of a threat to Assassin's Creed than it is to Star Wars. But if we finally get a critically-acclaimed video game adaptation, and Rogue One's critical reception proves to be less-than-stellar, we could see a little more competition between the two over the Christmas period than what's currently expected. The chances are slim, but it's something to at least entertain as a possibility.
As of 11/29, Assassin's Creed has around 20.3m views on its first trailer and around 9.7m on its second. Boxoffice.com has the film opening to $13m over 3 days, with a $56m domestic total; The Wrap has it opening at $20m over 3 days and $33m over 5; The Numbers has its predicted domestic total at $65m.
Finally, Passengers, the sci-fi thriller starring Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence. I'd say this ranks comparably to Sing for potential to hurt Rogue One at the box office. Everyone's been raving about the script, and with such a big budget (reportedly $120m-$150m), Sony's pumped a lot of money into this one in the anticipation that it's going to be a hit.
On the one hand, with big-budget original sci-fi few and far between, if it clicks it could do quite well. On the other, a lot of recent big-budget original sci-fi movies haven't fared too well at the box office: Tom Cruise-helmed Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow both made just about enough to break even (with the latter even getting a sequel, perhaps an acknowledgement by the studio that poor marketing was responsible for its lackluster performance); 2013's Elysium did just about enough to turn a small profit; there's even been some outright bombs in Brad Bird's Tomorrowland and The Wachowskis' Jupiter Ascending. There are some exceptions, of course: James Cameron's Avatar, the highest-grossing film of all time, Christopher Nolan's Inception and Interstellar, both of which were pretty successful, and others like 2013's Gravity with Sandra Bullock and 2014's Lucy starring Scarlett Johansson.
The film's leads will not doubt help matters, in any case. People may be tempted to cite The Magnificent Seven as evidence that Pratt isn't a big box office draw, but I'd counter that by pointing out that not only did the film receive mixed reception, but it was also in a genre that has struggled to post decent box office returns in recent years. At the same time, box office draws will only get you so far, especially in 2016; Passengers will needs its marketing to connect if it wants to turn a good profit.
I'm expecting Passengers to play especially well overseas; original sci-fi typically overperforms internationally relative to domestic gross, with almost all of the movies I've listed so far making well over 70% of their total gross from overseas (Oblivion just misses at 68.9%, and Inception and Gravity both fall in the low-mid 60s).
The only trailer for Passengers so far has generated around 17.9m views on Youtube, as of 11/29. Boxoffice.com estimates a 3-day opening of $38m for a $177m domestic total; The Wrap has its opening pegged at $26m for the 3-day and $39m for the 5-day; The Numbers has its domestic total pegged at $150m.
There are a few other notable films releasing close to Rogue One that I've not mentioned above: Office Christmas Party, a comedy starring Jennifer Aniston that releases a week before Rogue One; La La Land, a critically-acclaimed romantic musical drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone that again, releases a week before Rogue One; Collateral Beauty, a drama starring Will Smith that releases at the same time as Rogue One; and Why Him?, a romantic comedy starring James Franco and Bryan Cranston that release a week after. I'm not going to go into detail about these films because, as far as I'm concerned, none of these have any substantial crossover audience with Rogue One, nor are any of them going to be anywhere near strong enough at the box office to steal any sort of business from it. Office Christmas Party and Why Him? both seem poised to play far worse than 2015's Daddy's Home (domestically, at least), and while La La Land and Collateral Beauty may be critically acclaimed, even if they did share audience with Rogue One they still wouldn't be drawing enough interest at the box office to be a threat.
Final words
To conclude, I'd say it's pretty obvious from all this that the competition for Rogue One will be much tougher than for TFA. We've got a movie that's going to do some real damage overseas, a movie that could potentially break out and provide tough competition for Rogue One, and a wildcard in the form of Assassin's Creed. It's important to note also that competition will be much more important to Rogue One than it was to TFA; it's not a film that's going to bulldoze through everything, like TFA was. It's definitely something to take careful account of if you're looking at trying to predict Rogue One's opening weekend modifier.

Social media & trailer views

Social media analysis and looking at trailer reception is probably the most accessible way to measure audience interest in a film. On its own, this kind of stuff is a terrible way to accurately gauge box office potential (TFA had more social media activity in China than F7 did, for example), but as long as it's put into context properly it can help to illuminate a broader picture of a film's potential success. With that caution noted, we can have a look at how Rogue One's performance on these platforms compares to TFA and other films.
Trailer views
So starting off with the trailers, Rogue One has three in total: a teaser, released 7 months ago, and two official trailers, one released 3 months ago and one released a month ago. The Force Awakens is similar: three main trailers, two of which are teasers, released 6 months and a year before the film's opening, and a main trailer, released 2 months prior to its premiere. Combining the views of every repost above 3m views, each has the following views on YouTube:

TFA views Rogue One views
Trailer 1 ~95m [100.9m] (385 days) 51.2m (252 days)
Trailer 2 ~100m [104.9m] (246 days) 27.1m (126 days)
Trailer 3 ~70m [103.7m] (64 days) 21.6m (63 days)
Youtube trailer data taken on 12/6/2016.
For TFA, the bolded numbers are approximations of the views each trailer had a week before the film's release, for a better comparison with Rogue One's trailers. These estimates are made using the official Youtube graph of video views over time, which is public for each trailer on the Star Wars channel. The figures in square brackets are the actual views each of TFA's trailers has as of 6/12/2016, though we won't use these figures for comparative purposes. The figures in (round) brackets for each film/trailer indicate how many days before the film's domestic premiere the trailer was released.
Rogue One's views are down just under 50% from TFA for trailer 1, and around 70% for trailers 2 and 3. Views for subsequent trailers also tapered off quickly after trailer 1. The drops on Rogue One's trailer 2 and 3, both from trailer 1 and from TFA's trailer 2 and 3, suggest to me that people were very willing to give this movie a chance after TFA, but for one reason or another enthusiasm has waned. We can't read too much into social media stats like this on their own, but if I were to glean anything from this, I'd say it probably suggests less general public enthusiasm for the movie than people are expecting. It's also worth noting that Vader's appearances in trailers 2 and 3 had seemingly no effect on their views, which I think is evidence for my earlier claim about Vader's drawing power.
For comparison's sake, I've also compiled a table of trailer views for the top-grossing superhero movies this year. It's generally not a good idea to compare trailer success between films of different genres or in different series; a film's trailer success relative to its box office success varies wildly from genre to genre (Civil War has far more trailer views than Dory despite their similar worldwide success, for example), and indeed even from film to film in a common genre as you'll see below. However, I've included the results anyway to give an idea of how other franchise, big-budget movies backed by large core fanbases are doing in 2016 (the only exception being Deadpool, which didn't really have an established fanbase outside of comic book fans upon release). I'm not going to draw any conclusions from making comparisons between this data and the data for Rogue One, and I think it's unwise to do so, but it's something to at least keep in mind. One thing worth pointing out is that Rogue One has far less trailer views across the board than any of the big superhero movies releases this year, which may or may not turn out to be significant.
Note again that all of these movies have already been released, so the trailer views will naturally be around ~10% higher than they were a couple of weeks before the movie's release date.

Civil War Deadpool BvS Suicide Squad
Comic-Con trailer - - 96.5m (258) 117.4m (389)
Trailer 1 121.4m (164) 153.7m (192) 87.5m (343) 106.1m (199)
Trailer 2 126.9m (57) 99.5m (49) 83.9m (114) 58.5m (117)
Trailer 3 - - 47m (43) 15.4m (18)
Youtube trailer data taken on 12/2/2016. Numbers in brackets are, again, the days before release that the trailer premiered.
Social media
The first metric we'll look at is "social media conversations" as measured by comScore's (of which Rentrak is a subsidiary) PreAct service. Variety only started giving this data out a couple of months ago, so there's very little to compare it to, but we may be able to divine at least a little useful information from it. The week of Rogue One's third trailer release, it generated around 148,000 new conversations on social media. In comparison, Passengers generated around 43,000 new conversations during the week of its first trailer premiere, Wonder Woman generated around 136,000 during the week of its second trailer premiere, and during the week of its TV spot at the Superbowl, Civil War dominated social media with over 196,000 conversations. On the one hand, the fact that it generated only a little more conversation than Wonder Woman during its trailer release isn't the best (though note that we're comparing the impact of a third trailer to the impact of a second). On the other, Rogue One's total number of conversations is healthy; it surpassed 2.4m total conversations as of last week. Fantastic Beasts, which is the only real blockbuster available for comparison here (even Suicide Squad is too far in the past), had generated just over 900,000 conversations by the end of the week before its release.
All the above data is nice, but it'd be great if we had some data that we could directly compare between TFA and Rogue One. Thankfully, that's the case, thanks to the Wayback Machine. Boxoffice.com records the number of tweets per day every current and soon-to-be-releasing movie generates here, and we can compare the figures for TFA with the figures for Rogue One. A note: the data is updated throughout the day (around every 10 minutes), and it's a rolling total, so whenever 10 minutes of tweets gets added to the total, the oldest 10 minutes of tweets from 24 hours ago is discarded.
So what do we have? On the day after presales opened (October 20 and November 29 for TFA and Rogue One respectively), TFA had generated around 144k tweets at around 8PM PST, while Rogue One had generated only 23k at around the same time. On Monday 12/6/16 (9 days before Rogue One's release), at 5:30PM PST, Rogue One had generated 19.4k tweets for the day. On Thursday, 12/10/15 (6 days before TFA's release), at 5:36PM PST, TFA had generated 95.9k tweets for the day.
In general, over the past week or so, Rogue One has been peaking at 20k-25k tweets a day on weekdays, and just over 30k tweets a day during the weekend (peak Twitter activity occurs at around 8-9PM PST, for reference). In comparison, TFA at the end of Novembeearly December peaked at over 60k tweets a day on average for a weekday, and over 100k a day during weekends. BvS was peaking at around 40k tweets a day on weekdays about 10 days out from its release day, which increased to over 100k at the start of the film's release week. Deadpool, social media darling, was garnering about 40k-50k tweets a day on weekdays in late January/early February (before its release on February 12), and peaked at over 150k on the Friday before release.
What can we glean from this information? The fact that Rogue One isn't keeping up with TFA is hardly unsurprising, but only 1/3 as much activity makes for a bigger drop than I'd have imagined. This, and the fact that BvS and Deadpool outperformed it at similar periods in each film's pre-release could mean a number of things. It could be that there's less hype for Rogue One than there was for BvS outside of each film's core fanbase; it could be that Rogue One's skewing older than BvS and Deadpool demographically; it could be that there's just simply less general public interest in Rogue One as a whole. In my opinion, it's probably a mix of all three. Before people crucify me for suggesting that these movies held more interest and hype with the general public, remember both that BvS was massively hyped before its release and without the overwhelmingly negative reception would have far surpassed the $873m that it did gross, and that Deadpool managed $783m both without any sort of significant fanbase behind it and without China, so it too had massive GP support. Now, I'm not trying to say that Rogue One won't outgross BvS and Deadpool - it almost certainly will, with the huge Star Wars fanbase behind it, a China release, and a lack of rotten reviews (assumption) - but, much like the trailer data, I think this stuff is giving a huge indication of the level of GP interest that Rogue One is going to get when it releases.
I'll be keeping an eye on Rogue One's Twitter data myself over the next week or so. If possible, I'll try to get a few more data points to compare directly to TFA and the others, which I may post as a comment in this thread, or as a new thread if it's interesting enough. If you want to have a look at some of the available data points for TFA yourself, here's the Wayback Archive link. There's plenty of snapshots from October-December 2015, so plenty to look at.


So now that presales have officially begun, I guess we can talk a little about what they mean for Rogue One. I've seen people going crazy on various forums after seeing presales open up, with predictions ramping up by tens of millions simply because Rogue One sold a boatload of tickets on the first day of presales. Using presales to predict anything further than opening weekend is pretty much a terrible idea (and even then it's sketchy), especially if it's first-day presales for a franchise with perhaps the biggest core fanbase in the US right now. Besides that, I'd say that the presales for Rogue One aren't really anything out of the realistic bounds of expectation, which I'll explain in detail below.
First, I think we can all agree that Star Wars as a franchise has had massive, massive presales since advance ticket sales became a thing*. The obvious reason why Star Wars as a film series has always had such abnormally high presale numbers in comparison to other movies is because Star Wars films are generally seen as "event" movies by the general public, and the reason for that is twofold. First, the immense popularity of the franchise (self-explanatory). Second, how often they films are released. You can only build such an event status when the movies come out few and far between - like every 10, 20 years. When you've got a different movie released every year (à la the MCU), there's obviously not going to be as much hype generated for each movie compared to a single movie that people have been waiting for for 10+ years. Presales increase in popularity every year, but I think that outside of Episode VIII and IX (which might manage to stay flat or have only a small decrease from Episode VII in presales due to the aforementioned popularity increase), subsequent Star Wars movies will have substantial drops in presales as the "event" status of Star Wars movies is slowly eroded by Disney's release schedule.
Let's have a look at TFA's advance sales compared to other films. On the Tuesday before its release, TFA had grossed over $100m in presales (according to Hollywood Reporter, that figure could have in reality been north of $120m). It's very hard to find other data points (presales figures aren't usually released unless they're record-breaking), but I did manage to find two others: The Dark Knight Rises in 2012 had earned $25m in presales the Wednesday before its release, and Deathly Hallows Part 2 in 2011 racked up $32m in presales on the Thursday before its release. If we look at the ratio between total gross and advance ticket sales, then TFA had a 9.37 multiplier (7.81 if you put stock in the $120m figure), which is far smaller than both TDKR, with 17.92, and even the massively-hyped (and domestically frontloaded) DH2, which has a 11.91 multiplier. The big lesson here is really that presales do not translate linearly to final box office gross; for franchise movies with huge fanbases, like Stars Wars and Harry Potter, presales make up a much larger percentage of box office gross than regular blockbusters and indeed, even superhero films (which is why it's not at all surprising that Rogue One has the biggest presales of the year).
So why don't presales translate directly to box office gross? Well, the key reason is that presales don't really give any indication of general public demand. The presales for TFA were skewed heavily (70%) towards 18-49 year-old males - i.e. the core Star Wars fanbase. For a movie that's nowhere near as hyped with the general public I'd hazard a guess and say that'll skew even further upwards for Rogue One. What this means is that the only thing the presales are really telling us right now is that "the core Star Wars fanbase is very excited for this movie". That's good, of course - it would be a bad sign if they weren't - but it doesn't tell us anything about general demand for the movie. I see people making total gross predictions based solely on the presales hype, and that's just hilariously shortsighted - you're just setting yourself up to be wrong.
Again, I've got to stress that the general audience is both the most unpredictable and most important factor in a film's box office gross. If you want to get some sort of an idea of general audience interest, you'd better look towards things like social media statistics and trailer views instead - the kind of metrics that don't skew heavily towards the core fanbase. And as I've talked about above, it paints a very different picture of Rogue One than the presales do. Admittedly, it's very easy to ignore this kind of stuff in favor of presales because the latter is, in a way, much more solid evidence than the former - advance ticket sales are far more of a tangible measure of a movie's potential box office success than social media buzz. But if you're looking at solely presales for a movie that has a large fanbase behind it then you're going to completely overpredict, like what happened with most people on this sub and Civil War earlier this year. In Rogue One's case, people seem to be writing off this stuff as basically anomalous or just ignoring it completely, often I think because it doesn't fit the narrative they've already formed in their head (and indeed, the narrative that the presales paint).
The penultimate point that I'd like to make is the issue of the time scale. Advance tickets were available for TFA on October 19 last year, 60 days before the film was released. Rogue One's tickets went on sale last Monday (November 28), which means there are only 18 days of advance ticket sales for Rogue One, less than a third of the timespan as for TFA. We'll see how the presales pan out in the long run (Disney will only allow the release of the data if the presales are able to compare positively to TFA, so I suspect we may not see anything more about them at all), although for now, I'll end by saying Rogue One would probably need to be selling 4-5x as many tickets as TFA did this time last year to catch up with it (which it won't, of course - this is just an observation).
Finally, I mentioned in passing earlier that advance ticket sales increase every year. That's a very important point that I glossed over way too quickly. According to the LA Times, sales on MovieTickets.com grew by 40% from 2014 to 2015, and by 60% on Fandango, mainly due to the increase in popularity of advance tickets. That's a staggering increase, and such huge inflation is an incredibly strong argument against the case for comparing presales for movies released even a year apart. No wonder Civil War's presales outpaced every other superhero movie, right?
* Indeed, Episode III stayed the biggest advance ticket seller in history until New Moon came along in late 2009, and TFA will probably sit at the top for even longer.

End of part 1!

So that's the end of part 1 of my analysis on Rogue One. Part 2, which I'm posting either tomorrow or Friday, uses all the things we've discussed in this thread to formulate a review of Rogue One's box office potential - domestic, China, and overseas - and ends with my conclusion on how much it'll make worldwide.
submitted by jc191 to boxoffice [link] [comments]

2014.04.20 01:30 amdewstow Ladies Against Humanity Pack

"The limit does not exist!"


A $20 bill with Harriet Tubman's face on it
A bill allowing establishments to refuse service to homophobic legislators
A blazing Valentine's Day bonfire torching every moronic column that advises women on how not to end up single on Valentine's Day
A bodice-ripping 4-way with Alexander Skarsgard, lan Somerhalder, and David Boreanaz
A brown smudge equally likely to be period blood or chocolate.
A candlelight vigil for Nicole Brown Simpson
A CNN article touting "A Shocking New Study Shows Women Aren't Treated Equally With Men"
A detailed vajazzling of Van Gogh's Starry Night
A dozen Sprinkles cupcakes smeared on my naked body
A fantasy film that takes place in an alternate reality where, amazingly, everyone is white
A fantasy road trip with Anna Kendrick and Aubrey Plaza with burritos and mixtapes and skinny-dipping under the stars and you all just laugh and laugh
A federal holiday named after a black woman. (Or any woman, for that matter.)
A fun family cook-out grilling leftover dresses at Chez Gaga
A gender neutral, owl-themed baby announcement
A hand-crocheted Diva Cup case from Etsy.com
A heaping dish of real talk served ice cold by Ashley Wagner
A hot, wet, trumpet of a tart when you're nearly sure your partner is out of earshot
A humorless orgy filled with humorless feminists
A joke too funny for women to understand
A late breaking addition to the Opening Ceremony that features the women of Pussy Riot hooking up Putin's nipples and scrotum to high voltage electroshock
A limited edition set of white people white cards about topics such as J. Crew, half-marathons, and the word "articulate" just in time for Black History Month
A middle school style 3-way call about what to wear to the party
A misogynist dystopia set in the not-too distant WAIT A MINUTE
A much needed reminder that, all too often, "beauty standards" = "being white."
A new cookbook by Sylvia Plath
A new law forcing men to buy extra insurance in advance in case they someday need erectile dysfunction meds
A one-on-one tutorial in fabulous from Janet Mock
A one-way ticket to Steubenville
A perfect virginity story including a snowy night, a cozy cabin, and NBC news anchor Brian Williams
A personal style consultation from Lupita Nyong'o
A quickie with Rachel Maddowin the green room
A reissue of Battleship where you have to find the clitoris
A relationship-ending round of "Never Have I Ever"
A second-trimester burrito baby
A sneakediaper drive for your best friend Wendy Davis
A soothing 6-handed massage from McDreamy, McSteamy and Yang after a really tough day at work
A stern and timely pep talk from Miss Tyra
A strongly worded letter to Netflix demanding the addition of "The Good Wife"
A sturdy, resounding slap to the face of Vladimir Putin from the hand of Billie Jean King
A sudsy soak in the prefects bathroom with Cedric Diggory
A tear stained copy of Reviving Ophelia
A thoughtful discussion of music and fashion with Lorde and Tavi over manis and cappuccinos
A torrid sex odyssey with President Fitzgerald Grant
A toxic chemical fire fueled by all the make-up brands that don't make shades for people of color
A vagina mint. A mint for your vagina.
A vibrating Nuva Ring because why Wouldnot that exist
A warm, cuddly hug from Phillip Seymour Hoffman
A white-hot blazing inferno fueled entirely by Pnina Tarnai stunners
Abortion Barbie®
Accidentally making a duck face in the elevator mirror, immediately cringing in shame
Accidentally pooping out the tampon
Adele crooning under your ex's window 24/7 until he understands exactly what he did
Alan Rickman murmuring sweet pillow talk that you can't understand a word of but who cares just keep talking
An 80-year-old woman with her 20-year-old lover
An all-girl orgy comprised entirely of Cumberbitches
An alternate version of the Washington Monument that looks kind of like a vagina
An Auschwitz-themed Olympic debutante party
Arthur Weasley's muggle porn
Asking Gilbert Gottfried to do the lago voice during sex
Asking the waiter who tries to take your half-finished burger away if he's out of his fucking mind
Asking your doctor to define "occasional drinker"
Audra McDonald and ldina Menzel serenading you with the most heartbreaking love song in the history of everything
Awkwardly explaining to your waiter that you're not actually anti-coat hanger
Bandying Vampire Bill about the head and neck until he chooses Laura Benanti like a sane person
Banging Paul Rudd's ugly brother because close enough
Beard burn on your labia
Because sometimes you want three broomsticks
Being brought to tears by an unflattering photo and feeling a fiery mix of self-hatred and rage-filled feminist revolution
Being compared to a Cathy cartoon on Metafilter
Being forced to buy all fan gear in Pink because it's the color of your vagina
Being in a nice restaurant and knowing, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that there is definitely food in your bra
Being polite about Lean In at the office
Being single in winter and not shaving your legs for months
Being soulfully serenaded collectively and individually by The Roots
Being the only woman at the office-mandated sexual harassment training
Being unbelievably attracted to Michael Fassbender even when he's evil to his core
Beyoncé thinkpieces
Beyoncé watching the halftime show on her $40,000 couch just laughing like yeah, sure, whatever
Blue Ivy's weave
Bobby Flay chipping his tooth on a ball gag
Breaking up with your fiancé via a fabulous Sondheim patter song
Buying condoms in your hometown
Calculating the WeightWatchers Points Plus™ in a heaping serving of Donald Rumsfeld's spooge
Calmly informing your date that you understand the infield fly rule better than he does
Celebrating equal pay day by making the same amount of money as a man who does the same job as you. Lol just kidding, you can't have that.
Checking "Other: Lesbianism" on the birth control survey at your gynecologist's office
Chin hairs you pretend you don't have
Choking on the ashes of Gloria Steinem's bras
CJ Cregg laying the smack down on a misogynist fucker then taking you out for mimosas
Compiling all the money we spend on hair removal products to feed all the hungry children forever
Condi and Hillary throwing a power pantsuit fashion show to raise money to help journalists who can't think of better questions to ask women politicians
Congratulating CBS on having the bravery and audacity to pick a white man to host a late night show
Convincing 2 straight guys to make out at a party to impress their girlfriends
Cooper Manning's burn book
Cramming Vladimir Putin full of Activia® until he poops out Russia's homophobia
Crying in the fitting room during bikini season
Daenerys Targaryen's fire-breathing vajayjay
Daenerys Targaryen, Arya Stark and Cersei Lannister combining forces to take down misogyny forever
Deciding that Lupita Nyong'o is the Cinderella you hope your daughter will grow up to be
Declaring that you will abstain from checking OkCupid or Tinder for 24 hours on Valentine's Day but then getting drunk and sad and signing in with much lower standards
Deliberately not shaving your legs to keep yourself from hooking up on an early date
Depriving white men of the right to vote for 150 years and just seeing what happens
Diane Keaton wearing a suit better than any man ever could.
Discovering orgasms at a prettttty young age courtesy of a jacuzzi/hot tub/pool jet
Doing your kegels at work
Donating your breast milk for vegan consumption
Doubling up on sports bras
Douches that smell like rain
Dumbledore's rarely seen club robes
Dumpsters overflowing with whimsical save the-date magnets
Dying your hair red like Angela Chase
Eating the entire bag
Emma Goldman burning the whole motherfucker down
Engagement photos on train tracks
Expensive vibrators shaped like twee woodland creatures
Experimenting with Stacey McGill and Claudia Kishi while the kids sleep in the other room
Explaining to a man that your bisexuality does not exist for his titillation
Expressing the anal glands of Oprah's chow chows
Feeling a little bit smug about Gwyneth Paltrow's divorce
Feeling microaggressive when people won't stop using the word microaggressive
Feeling nauseous and thinking, "0h, great. Is this going to cost me $400?"
Feeling slightly like you are fighting the system when you use the men's restroom at a bar rather than standing in line for the ladies' room
Finally being included in an NFL commercial as a "football fan" instead of "football fan's clueless girlfriend"
Finger banging Michelle Rodriguez
Flicking the bean to Adam Levine's Proactiv® commercial
Force-feeding Sheryl Sandberg the pages of lean In, one by one
Forcing your lover to call you "moon of my life"
Gabby Gifford' physical therapy
Getting a little turned on by the liquid silk voices of the ladies of NPR
Getting a new match notification on Tinder and not having any idea what you were thinking when you swiped right
Getting angry at your crush because of something mean he said during an imaginary conversation
Getting DPed by the Property Brothers on a custom granite countertop
Getting drunk and texting someone you don't really like because it's better than texting no one at all
Getting home from a workout and realizing your pubes were sticking out of your short shorts the whole time
Getting in the football mood by spiking your used tampons into the trash and celebrating afterwards
Getting irrationally angry when you don't think a Facebook status deserves that many likes
Getting topped by Professor Grubbly-Plank
Getting weepy drunk in the daytime and posting quotes from You've Got Mail on the internet
Giving ScarJo's boobs a (consensual) Iii' squeezy-squeeze on the red carpet
Giving up on the game to make out with big Tim Riggins
Going on a mediocre date, then a terrible date, then fooling yourself into thinking the mediocre date was better than it was
Going out to buy super healthy organic groceries then coming home and ordering takeout
Guys who can't get it together to set a date but still find time to like your shit on Face book
Guys who take off their wedding rings before they flirt with you at a bar
Hagrid and Madame Maxime role-play
Having big boobs and wearing horizontal stripes anyway cause FUCK IT
Having unprotected sex to honor the anniversary of Roe v. Wade
Hermione telling you she'd never hurt Ron; it's just that you're so beautiful and she's so confused
High-fiving Sandra Bullock after the best drunk duet of "Oops! I did it again" in the history of karaoke
High-fiving Shonda Rhimes while dancing on the graves of every boss who never bothered to hire a woman or person of color
Hillary bitch-slapping Bill with a frozen tuna
Hiring Buffy Summers to roundhouse kick the woman in your office who doesn't support other women
Holding hands with Ellen Page at the best Tegan & Sara concert ever
Holding your boobs as you go up and down stairs
Hoping maybe he didn't call because he died
Inspirational Dove chocolate wrappers
It gets better(ish).
JLaw creeping Taylor Swift ADORABLY
Joaquin Phoenix as George Michael Bluth and Scarlett Johannsen as Ann Veal in the new Arrested Development movie, "HER?"
Khaleesi bringing her dragons to a board meeting like "sorry, couldn't get daycare!"
Kim Kardashian's placenta banh mi
Kneeing him right in the man business when the fantasy suite turns into a nightmare
Lactating when a stranger's baby cries on the train
ldris Elba whisking you off for a weekend on the Riviera
Leonardo DiCaprio sitting on the sidewalk smoking with "Talkshow Host" playing in the background
Liberté, égalité. Beyoncé.
Lining up all the lip glosses you've ever lost until they wrap around the world
Living with the fact that you're a white person who regularly downloads songs from "Glee"
Locking all the mansplainers in a windowless room with Bellatrix Lestrange
Magic ovaries that shoot down rape sperm with lasers
Making 77 cents on the dollar (unless you're Latina)
Making Firefox your preferred browser for gay porn
Making him jealous with Viktor Krum
Making it obnoxiously clear to your friends that you'll be watching the Puppy Bowl instead of the Super Bowl this year
Making out with an openly gay Eagle Scout "to help him make sure"
Malala's gunshot wounds
Masturbating to Ty Pennington
Meredith Grey's slut phase
Meryl Streep selfies
Michelle Kwan gliding across the ice like a majestic goddamn swan
Mother. Fucking. Thigh gap.
Naming your breasts Lorelei and Rory
Needing to pee before your nail polish dries
Not having the heart to tell him it really doesn't happen to everyone
Objectifying women "for charity"
Oil wrestling with all three Manning brothers. Yeah, there are three.
Only shaving up to the knee
Patti Stanger's line of jewelry Asking Larry Summers increasingly difficult mathematical questions until Bar and Bat Mitzvahs are considered equally important
Peggy Olson's cutthroat ambitions
Perversely cheering for a team your partner hates, just for funsies
Pitching "The Deathstick" to Good Vibrations
Pointing out to people who claim to hate abortion that they might want to consider supporting access to contraception
Polishing off another bottle of Bordeaux with Olivia Pope and Alicia Florrick
Politely asking Juan Pablo to stop ruining Juan-uary
Pre-ordering a new Hitachi Magic Wand just in time for Galentine's Day
Pretending someone else is home when the delivery guy shows up with your extra large pizza
Pretending you don't fantasize about taking Tim Tebow's virginity
Pretending you'll wear that bridesmaid dress again
Princess Aurora maniacally devouring the still-beating heart of Maleficent
Proclaiming the wine "undrinkable" immediately before drinking it
Proudly carrying your tampon to the bathroom in full view of everyone because THE JIG IS UP A LOT OF US HAVE PERIODS
Putting on skinny jeans straight out of the dryer and wanting to commit genocide
Queefing in the faces of Oscar voters until they're forced to recognize the achievements of women and people of color
Raising a champagne toast to Belle Knox, the badass Duke porn actress
Realizing halfway through a great date that you forgot to tweeze those nipple hairs
Realizing you're not having lesbian sex anytime soon after you get one of those chunky glitter manis
Realizing your awkward sitting position on the floor made your vag lips lose all sensation
Reimagining your life as gluten free when you find out the hot 23-year-old at the office has Celiac
Rejecting a guy who might be your future husband on Tinder because his face just akes you angry
Reminding yourself not to start a conversation about your to-do list after your mind wanders during sex
Renée Fleming bringing linebackers to tears
Resentfully clicking like on your boss's vacation photos
Rosa Park's back seat
Roses are red, violets are blue, women deserve equal pay for equal work
Running your fingers through Jon Stewart's lustrous salt-and-pepper hair until you've regained a sense of calm
Ryan Gosling's taint
Scalding hot wax right there on your labia
Screaming in terror at the giant bug in your shower before you realize it's a hair ball
Seven carpets that match the drapes
Seven minutes in heaven with Eric Decker
Sexual fantasies involving Mindy Lahiri and a sumptuous coffeecake
Shameful childhood memories of envying the wheelchair girl who got all the attention
Shouting "NOT OKAY TOO SOON DON'T DO IT KEVIN" when Fred Savage plays a perp on SVU
Sipping champagne and trying on dresses made by designers of color with Kerry Washington and Michelle Obama
Sirius holding his hand over your mouth so you don't wake his mother's portrait
Smiling and pretending the sexism in your industry doesn't exist because you'd like to get/keep a job
Sort of wishing the baby on the plane would die
Sorting your friends - even the ones you think belong in Hufflepuff
Stalking wedding photos on Facebook, weeping softly.
Staph infections from dirty nail salons
Stealing a male relative's Playboy and feeling brand new feelings
Stubbornly refusing to put a tampon in because your period should have ended two days ago
Stumbling on David Wright performing as Judy Garland in the East Village
Subjecting a handsy finance bro to the withering gaze of the Dowager Countess
Surprising your partner with a Vladimir Putin shaped butt plug
Swish and flick.
Taking a giant dump on the 18th green at the Augusta National Golf Club
Taking your vegan girlfriend to shuck some soysters
Talking sexy social justice with Maya Angelou until your caged bird sings
Taylor Swift's sloppy seconds
Telling a street harasser "YOU know what? I will blow you."
Telling Pacey your innermost secrets in a canoe beneath the Capeside stars
Telling the thousandth guy for the thousandth time that all he needs to do is expend one tiny modicum of effort
Telling your date you're only paying 77 cents on the dollar when he asks to split the check
Tenderly dominating Uncle Jesse from behind
Texting your blind date's address to all your friends for safety
Thanking whatever nice man decided women deserve one month per year to learn about our history
That dangerous, terrifying moment when you realize you've memorized your credit card
That floaty feeling your legs get when you shave them after a long time
That guy in your gender studies class who's "just playing devil's advocate"
That moment when the wind flows through your vag hair
That time Cate Blanchett schooled Hollywood about how films starring women do make money
That time the president said "Women deserve equal pay for equal work" and half the room disagreed
The Bechdel Test
The blue liquid from tampon commercials
The chills you still get down your spine remembering the night Barack Hussein Obama became our president
The chub rub
The cold hard truth that no lesbian has ever scissored
The dawning realization that this is your life and this is what you're doing with it
The delicious grin that spreads across your lips right before you cock-punch that guy who just told you to smile
The disconcertingly placed hotel bathroom mirror that allows you to finally know how your face looks when you poop
The effort to control your facial expression when your friend tells you what she named her baby
The fallacious mythological running bra that actually stops the bouncing
The fallopian tube related elevation sickness that forces lady sports reporters to stay on the field and out of the booth
The G-Spot, the Y -Spot, the other spot you made up to confuse your partner
The Golden Girls' never-ending supply of frozen cheesecake
The grim, completely unsurprised facial expressions of black women being kicked off "The Bachelor"
The Gyllenhaals: giving incest a thumbs up this one time
The holiday greeting card heteronormative parade
The look on your boyfriend's face when he said "anal is no big deal" so you pulled out a strap-on
The massively hot lesbian orgy we assume took place after women leaders were forced to march separately in the 1963 March on Washington
The mental jiujitsu required to be a Republican and a woman at the same time
The moving romance of a holiday where men are expected to reinforce structurally sexist gender norms by buying things
The nauseating fact that many NFL cheerleaders make less than $1,000 per year
The new Georgia O'Keefe biopic, "Yeah, that's not a flower"
The new Special K diet: eating the box
The newest weapon in the global war on poverty: Connie Britton's hair
The pleasurable feeling you get pulling a stray hair out of your butt crack while you shower
The race to beat your vibrator's dying batteries to the finish line
The raging hellfire your best friend Veronica Mars will rain down on anyone who betrays you
The realization that there's no polite way to ask if he's inside you
The saddest, loneliest hand job in all the world
The self-esteem murdering combination of constipation and skinny jeans
The shocking revelation that all Super Bowl car commercials are shot in Saudi Arabia, which is why no women are allowed to drive
The simmering rage when some friend of a friend you've never met mansplains you on Facebook
The temptation to jump the curb and mow down random men who tell you how to parallel park
The terror when you glimpse those tiny droplets of pee glistening on the public toilet seat
The torture chamber where Kathryn Bigelow keeps James Cameron
The underwear sniff test
The unknowable shame of having masturbated to The L-Word
The unmitigated horror of having to pee in a club while wearing a jumpsuit
The unparalleled bliss of taking the bra off and letting the girls fly free
The Williams sisters patrolling the night exacting brutal, unrelenting justice
Throwing every person who's ever assumed you were pregnant into a pit filled with hot acid
Thwacking a men's rights activist with Lady Gaga's shoe
Tina Fey and Amy Poehler making out on a pile of Bitch magazmes
Tom Colicchio whipping up a delectable midnight snack while you lean against the counter wearing one of his button downs
Trying to figure out which Weasley twin prefers anal play
Turning the tables on Katie Couric about her genitals mid-interview
Tweeting Cory Booker about that guy walking behind you
Unbelievably hot dreams about your ex because YOUR SUBCONSCIOUS IS AN ASSHOLE
Underboob sweat like rancid milk
Unfriending that one girl who won't stop vomiting her wedding planning on your Facebook
Unnecessarily gendered teas
Unsolicited information about your boyfriend's sperm count
Urinating on yourself to prevent an assault
Using a Super Bowl bet to get your partner to try that kinky sex thing they've been putting off
Using April Fools as a barometer to figure out which of your friends are actually funny
Velvety rose petals elaborately arranged to spell the words "I'm breaking up with you, asshole"
Waking up in Harry's four poster bed
Walking out of West Elm with another fucking throw pillow
Watching a more qualified woman of color get passed over for some white guy on national television
Watching Bethenny Frankel struggle for life in a churning sea of pre-mixed SkinnyGirl® cocktails
Watching Eli Manning's face light up as you hand him the world's most adorable puppy
Wearing yoga clothes to not do yoga
When "small and scrappy" just doesn't cut it
When a dog smells your crotch and you know exactly why
When a FOX News anchor casually references 'ebonies'
When a guy says "70% of women are crazy" and you want to find a way to cut his face off without reinforcing the stereotype
When a guy's like "ugh, are you on your period?" and you totally are BUT THAT'S NOT WHY YOU'RE ANGRY
When a male colleague tries to take credit for your idea and you shout "NOBODY PUTS BABY IN A CORNER"
When RuPaul throws ultimate shade and Alec Baldwin pees himself and faints into a bowl of soup
When someone thoughtfully points out that an article of clothing makes you look bigger, like that is the single worst thing that could ever happen to a person
When the tampon is too low and you feel it with every step.
When there are only two squares of toilet paper left and you know there's about to be a little bit of pee on your hand
When you wear a too-short skirt on public transportation and your vagina is basically touching the bus seat
When your boyfriend competes with Leslie Knope to be the best gift-giver ever and convinces Ladies Against Humanity to post your very own birthday card
When your one night stand finishes with "OMAHA!"
When your partner goes down on you until you turn into Moaning Myrtle
Wondering how best to vent about Obamacare without seeming like you don't support it
Wondering if Ariel chums the water every time she gets her period
Wondering whether your girl crush on Hermione constitutes pedophilia
Yearning to use Adam Scott's fluffy, gravity-defying mane as a full body shower loofah
Your gigantic crush on Jenna Lyons
Zach Braff and k.d. lang trading hair tips
“Baby, what's wrong?”
“Daddy? What are you doing?”
“Whatever Peeta. You'll never understand my struggle with ______.”
50 Shades of ______.
All I want for Pi day is ______ and 3.14 actual pies.
Are you there, God? It's me, ______.
At the next Republican National Convention, Clint Eastwood will use a chair for ______.
Claudette Colvin is most famous for doing what Rosa Parks did 9 months earlier but she's second most famous for ______.
Derek Jetter will retire at the end of next season to spend more time ______.
Detective Stabler's latest rage blackout was brought on by ______.
Do you have something you'd like to share with the class?
Draw me, Jack. Draw me like ______.
Hey, Susie. I know your job is ______ but can you just grab me ______? Thanks.
How do I celebrate beating all my male co-workers in the office March Madness pool?
I couldn't help but wonder: was it Mr. Big, or was it ______?
I find that ______ helps me locate my IUD string.
I know it looks like that guy on the subway is masturbating, but really he's ______.
I thought I'd win her heart by ______, but sadly McKayla was not impressed.
I'm not a smoker at all, just sometimes I need a cigarette to deal with ______.
I'm so excited! I'm so excited! I'm so… so… ______.
I'm not even thinking about having a baby because I'm extremely busy ______.
If you don't mind my asking, how do lesbians have sex?
In "A Time to Kill,” Matthew McConaughey hated racism more than ______.
In her next romcom, Katherine Heigl plays a woman who falls in love with her boss's ______
Instead of a diamond ring, I want my partner to spend two months' salary on ______.
It's not cheating if I'm ______.
It's not length it's ______.
It's poker night with Beyoncé. You pull ______ out of your bra and slam it on the table.
It's not that I think we should break up, it's just lately I've been thinking a lot about ______.
Letting a white bro think he understands ______ better than you do.
MASH: Mansion Apartment, Shack, ______.
Men are from ___, women are from ___.
Meth is hard Let's go ______!
Obamacare has been criticized for restricting women's access to ______.
On a tough day, what's that one special thing Coach Taylor does to make you feel better?
On Wednesday, we wear ______.
One magical property common to unicorn blood, dragon blood, and Diva Cup blood is ______.
Pardon me while I take up less space so a man can have more room for ______.
She may not be fazed by Richard Sherman, but Erin Andrews is terrified of ______.
Shortly after the repeal of DOMA, Dumbledore was seen ______.
Sofia Coppola's new film focuses on a wealthy young white woman feeling alienated by ______.
Something old, something new, something borrowed, and ______.
Sometimes I want to think my one guy friend who's a legit baller feminist by ______.
That's why her hair is so big. It's full of ______.
The best excuse to not do that exercise groupon is ______.
The Devil Wears ______.
The latest proposal in the Texas legislature is to take away ______ from women.
The newest royal baby bears on alarming resemblance to ______.
The only thing more boring than your new diet is ______.
The Pantone color of the year is inspired by ______.
The secrets to John Boehner's smooth, even tan are a cream made from aborted fetuses and ______.
The thing I want most for Valentine's Day is my set of “Ladies Against Humanity” cards, but the thing I want second-most is ______.
This month in Cosmo; How to give your man ______ at the expense of ______.
This year's top Super Bowl commercial will use ______ to advertise Budweiser beer.
We are never. Ever. Ever. Ever ______.
What do I see in the Mirror of Erised?
What fell into my bra?
What is Olivia Pope's secret to removing red wine stains from white clothes?
What made this the most dramatic rose ceremony ever?
What makes a sponge-worth?
What should I get my therapist for Christmas?
What was Barty Crouch really doing in the Forbidden Forest?
What will Bill Clinton's social cause be as First Man?
What's in the gift baskets Derek Jeter gives to his one-night-stands?
What's my preferred way of celebrating International Women's Day?
What's my weapon of choice in the “War on Women”?
What's one thing straight white guys like even better than feeling oppressed?
What's Seth MacFarlane's problem?
What's the most privileged thing I do on the regs?
What's the one thing that worried Russia's anti-gay police even more than the entire sport of figure skating?
What's the one totally unexpected thing that helps Emeril stay hard?
What's the real reason there's no Wonder Woman movie?
What's the secret ingredient in Proactive®?
What's the weirdest thing that's been in my vagina?
What's my preferred method of contraception?
When I found out PARKS & REC was renewed for a seventh season, I celebrated by ______.
When Queen Elizabeth has to keep smiling, she just thinks of ______.
When they finally convince Chris Harrison to be The Bachelor, I'll win his heart by ______.
Why can't we have nice things?
Why do men on the internet send me pictures of ______?
Why does the Komen Foundation hate Planned Parenthood?
Why exactly was Alains so mad at uncle Joey?
You know nothing, Jon Snow, but you're pretty good at ______.
______: That's a deal-breaker.
______:the Tori Amos song that changed my life
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